Oscar Predictions: Best Picture — Telluride Adds More Buzz for ‘Anora’ and ‘Emilia Pérez’ With ‘Saturday Night’ Leaping Into the Race
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
2025 Oscars Predictions:
Best Picture
Weekly Commentary (Updated Sept. 3, 2024): It’s a wrap on the Telluride Film Festival and Venice is nearing its close shortly. Next on the docket will be the Toronto International Film Festival and the buzz surrounding which film will take home the coveted People’s Choice Award.
The 51st edition of the Telluride concluded on Labor Day with three standout films generating (or increasing) significant Oscar buzz: Sean Baker’s Palme d’Or winner “Anora,” Jacques Audiard’s Spanish-language musical “Emilia Pérez,” and Jason Reitman’s dark comedy “Saturday Night.”
RaMell Ross’ “Nickel Boys” drew equal passion and criticism from attendees, and could make an impression with both the L.A. and New York Film Critics Awards when the precursors begin announcing in December.
Several other films made an impact in the Colorado mountains. Malcolm Washington’s directorial debut “The Piano Lesson” hopes to follow in the footsteps of another August Wilson adaptation, “Fences,” directed by Denzel Washington, who also produces this film alongside Todd Black.
Following the success of “All Quiet on the Western Front,” which won four Oscars, director Edward Berger returns with the religious and political thriller “Conclave,” which garnered raves and seems to be Focus Features’ most-prized steed in the race.
On the Lido, it’s been about Pedro Almodóvar‘s “The Room Next Door,” which garnered an astounding 17-minute standing ovation. This could bode well for the Sony Pictures Classics film, bringing the auteur his best picture nominated movie of his career (how is that true?).
In addition, the buzz continues to build for titles seeking U.S. distribution, including Brady Corbet’s Holocaust drama “The Brutalist” and Tim Fehlbaum’s tension-filled “September 5.” The latter was also a huge hit at Telluride.
Read: All Primetime Emmy predictions in every category on Variety’s Awards Circuit.
The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. The full rankings are below. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited producers are not final and are subject to change.
** denotes the film is not yet dated or can open in 2025.
-
Image Credit: Courtesy of Columbia Pictures And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank Film 1 “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Jacques Audiard, Pascal Caucheteux, Valérie Schermann, Anthony Vacarello2 “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
Lucy Fisher, David Franzoni, Michael Pruss, Ridley Scott, Douglas Wick3 “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Fred Berger, Bob Bookman, Timothée Chalamet, Alan Gasmer, Alex Heineman, Peter Jaysen, James Mangold, Jeff Rosen4 “Anora” (Neon)
Sean Baker, Alex Coco, Samantha Quan5 “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
Steve McQueen, Arnon Milchan, Yariv Milchan, Eric Fellner, Tim Bevan, Michael Schaefer6 “The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Agustín Almodóvar, Esther García7 “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
Jason Blumenfeld, Peter Rice, Jason Reitman, GIl Kenan8 “Conclave” (Focus Features)
Alice Dawson, Robert Harris, Juliette Howell, Michael Jackman, Tessa Ross9 “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
Todd Black, Denzel Washington10 “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
Cale Boyter, Tanya Lapointe, Mary Parent, Denis VilleneuveBest Motion Picture (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) -
Image Credit: L. Kasimu Harris / Amazon MGM / Orion Next in Line
Rank Film 11 “September 5” (No U.S. Distribution) 12 “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) 13 “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.) 14 “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures) 15 “Sing Sing” (A24) 16 “Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM/Orion) 17 “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Neon) 18 “Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street) 19 “Maria” (Netflix) 20 “Wicked” (Universal Pictures) Best Motion Picture (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) -
Image Credit: Yannis Drakoulidis Other Contenders
Rank Film 21 “The Brutalist” (No U.S. Distribution) 22 “Here” (Sony Pictures) 23 “Inside Out 2” (Pixar) 24 “Queer” (A24) 25 “Nosferatu” (Focus Features) 26 “His Three Daughters” (Netflix) 27 “The Apprentice” (Briarcliff Entertainment) 28 “We Live in Time” (A24) 29 “Challengers” (Amazon MGM) 30 “Better Man” (Paramount Pictures) Best Motion Picture (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) -
Image Credit: Niko Tavernise Also In Contention
Rank Film 31 “Piece by Piece” (Focus Features) 32 “All We Imagine as Light” (Janus Films/Sideshow) 33 “Babygirl” (A24) 34 “The Fire Inside” (Amazon MGM) 35 “The End” (Neon) 36 “Memoir of a Snail” (IFC Films) 37 “In the Summers” (Music Box Films) 38 “The Last Showgirl” (No U.S. Distribution) ** 39 “The Substance” (Mubi) 40 “Will & Harper” (Netflix) Best Motion Picture (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) -
Eligible Titles (Best Picture)
Image Credit: Searchlight Pictures ** This list is incomplete and not yet finalized. Not all films have distribution or release dates. All are subject to change.
- “Alien: Romulus” (20th Century Studios)
- “All We Imagine as Light” (Janus Films/Sideshow)
- “Anora” (Neon)
- “The Apprentice” (Briarcliff Entertainment)
- “Babygirl” (A24)
- “Back to Black” (Focus Features)
- “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.)
- “Better Man” (Paramount Pictures)
- “Between the Temples” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- “The Bikeriders” (Focus Features)
- “Bird” (Mubi)
- “Blink” (National Geographic)
- “Blink Twice” (Amazon MGM)
- “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
- “Bob Marley: One Love” (Paramount Pictures)
- “The Book of Clarence” (Sony Pictures)
- “The Brutalist” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “Carville: Winning is Everything, Stupid!” (CNN Films)
- “Challengers” (Amazon MGM)
- “Civil War” (A24)
- “The Colors Within” (GKids)
- “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
- “Conclave” (Focus Features)
- “Daddio” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- “Daughters” (Netflix)
- “Day of the Fight” (Falling Forward Films)
- “Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios)
- “The Deb” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “The Deliverance” (Netflix)
- “Despicable Me 4” (Illumination/Universal Pictures)
- “A Different Man” (A24)
- “Dìdi” (Focus Features)
- “Don’t Let’s Go to the Dogs Tonight” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “Drive-Away Dolls” (Focus Features)
- “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
- “Eden” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “Elton John: Never Too Late” (Walt Disney Pictures)
- “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
- “Emmanuelle” (Neon) **
- “The End” (Neon)
- “Evil Does Not Exist” (Sideshow)
- “Fancy Dance” (Apple Original Films)
- “The Fire Inside” (Amazon MGM)
- “Firebrand” (Roadside Attractions)
- “Flow” (Janus Films/Sideshow)
- “Frida” (Amazon MGM)
- “The Friend” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “The Front Room” (A24)
- “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga” (Warner Bros.)
- “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
- “Harbin” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street)
- “Here” (Sony Pictures)
- “Heretic” (A24)
- “His Three Daughters” (Netflix)
- “Hit Man” (Netflix)
- “Horizon: An American Saga — Chapter 1” (Warner Bros.)
- “I Am Celine Dion” (Amazon MGM)
- “I Saw the TV Glow” (A24)
- “I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- “The Idea of You” (Amazon MGM)
- “IF” (Paramount Pictures)
- “The Imaginary” (Netflix)
- “In the Summers” (Music Box Films)
- “It Ends With Us” (Sony Pictures)
- “Janet Planet” (A24)
- “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)
- “K-Pops” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures)
- “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” (20th Century Studios)
- “Klara and the Sun” (Sony Pictures) **
- “Kneecap” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- “The Last Showgirl” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “Lee” (Roadside Attractions)
- “The Life of Chuck” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “Longlegs” (Neon)
- “The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim” (Warner Bros.)
- “Love Lies Bleeding” (A24)
- “Maria” (Netflix)
- “Meet the Barbarians” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “Megalopolis” (Lionsgate)
- “Memoir of a Snail” (IFC Films)
- “Millers in Marriage” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “Misericordia” (Janus Films) **
- “Moana 2” (Walt Disney Pictures)
- “Monkey Man” (Universal Pictures)
- “The Most Precious of Cargoes” (StudioCanal)
- “Mothers’ Instinct” (Neon)
- “Mufasa: The Lion King” (Walt Disney Pictures)
- “My Old Ass” (Amazon MGM)
- “Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM/Orion)
- “Nightbitch” (Searchlight Pictures)
- “Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
- “Nutcrackers” (No U.S. Distribution)
- “Oh, Canada” (Kino Lorber) **
- “On Becoming a Guinea Fowl” (A24)
- “On Swift Horses” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “One Life” (Bleecker Street)
- “The Order” (Vertical Entertainment)
- “The Outrun” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- “Parthenope” (A24)
- “The Penguin Lessons” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
- “Piece by Piece” (Focus Features)
- “Queer” (A24)
- “Quisling – The Final Days” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
- “Relay” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “The Remarkable Life of Ibelin” (Netflix)
- “The Return” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “Rez Ball” (Netflix)
- “Riff Raff” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- “Rumours” (Bleecker Street)
- “Santosh” (Metrograph Pictures)
- “Sasquatch Sunset” (Bleecker Street)
- “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
- “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Neon)
- “September 5” (No U.S. Distribution)
- “Shirley” (Netflix)
- “The Shrouds” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “Sing Sing” (A24)
- “The Six Triple Eight” (Netflix)
- “Small Things Like These” (Lionsgate)
- “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” (Paramount Pictures)
- “Spellbound” (Netflix)
- “Stopmotion” (IFC/Shudder)
- “The Substance” (Mubi)
- “Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story” (Warner Bros.)
- “That Christmas” (Netflix)
- “Thelma” (Magnolia Pictures)
- “Transformers One” (Paramount Pictures)
- “Tuesday” (A24)
- “Twisters” (Universal Pictures)
- “Ultraman: Rising” (Netflix)
- “Unstoppable” (Amazon MGM)
- “Venom: The Last Dance” (Sony Pictures)
- “Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl” (Netflix)
- “We Grown Now” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- “We Live in Time” (A24)
- “Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
- “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)
- “Wildcat” (Oscilloscope Laboratories)
- “Will & Harper” (Netflix)
- “William Tell” (No U.S. Distribution)
- “Without Blood” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “Woman of the Hour” (Netflix)
- “Young Werther” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “Young Woman and the Sea” (Walt Disney Pictures)
-
More Information (Oscars: Best Picture)
Image Credit: FilmMagic 2024 category winner: “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) — Emma Thomas, Charles Roven and Christopher Nolan
2024-2025 Oscars Calendar and Timeline (all dates are subject to change)
- Eligibility period: Jan. 1, 2024 – Dec. 31, 2024
- General entry, best picture, RAISE submission deadline: Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024
- Governors Awards: Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024
- Preliminary voting begins Monday, Dec. 9, 2024, at 9 a.m. PT.
- Preliminary voting ends Friday, Dec. 13, 2024, at 5 p.m. PT.
- Oscar Shortlists Announcement: Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024
- Eligibility period ends: Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024
- Nominations voting begins Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT.
- Nominations voting ends Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT.
- Oscar Nominations Announcement: Friday, Jan. 17, 2025
- Oscar Nominees Luncheon: Monday, Feb. 10, 2025
- Final voting begins Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT
- Final voting ends: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT
- Scientific and Technical Awards: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025
- 97th Oscars: Sunday, March 2, 2025
Oscars Prediction Categories
— — Best Picture Director Actor in a Leading Role Actress in a Leading Role Actor in a Supporting Role Actress in a Supporting Role Original Screenplay Adapted Screenplay Animated Feature Production Design Cinematography Costume Design Film Editing Makeup and Hairstyling Sound Visual Effects Original Score Original Song Documentary Feature International Feature Animated Short Documentary Short Live Action Short Casting (coming in 2026) 2024 Oscar Predictions (Variety Awards Circuit) About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.
