Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
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2025 Oscars Predictions: All Categories
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2025 Oscars Predictions
Weekly Commentary (Updated Sept. 3, 2024): The Toronto International Film Festival kicks off this week, and we’ll get our first looks at hopefuls such as Marielle Heller’s “Nightbitch” with Amy Adams and John Crowley’s “We Live in Time” with Andrew Garfield and Florence Pugh. In addition, acquisition titles, such as Gia Coppola’s “The Last Showgirl” with Pamela Anderson, will see if they can factor into the race this year.
Some films that premiered at Venice and Telluride and garnered Oscar buzz will also make the trip to Canada, including Pedro Almodóvar’s “The Room Next Door,” Jason Reitman’s “Saturday Night,” Malcolm Washington’s “The Piano Lesson” and Walter Salles’ “I’m Still Here.”
Angelina Jolie has positioned herself as a Best Actress contender for her portrayal of famed opera singer Maria Callas in Pablo Larraín’s biopic “Maria” after bowing at Venice and Telluride. The Oscar-winning actress of “Girl, Interrupted” has positioned herself as one of the leading contenders, which could also include Saoirse Ronan (“The Outrun”), Karla Sofía Gascón (“Emilia Pérez”) and Mikey Madison (“Anora”).
In Venice, Daniel Craig is said to deliver a career-best performance in Luca Guadagnino‘s romantic drama “Queer,” playing a gay American expat in 1950s Mexico City. It swept up a packed theater at its world premiere on Tuesday night, earning a 9-minute standing ovation. The news comes after A24 picked it up for distribution in the U.S. The film will be shown at TIFF next week.
Check out the latest projections below and which films and studios lead the tally.
The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited artisans are not final and are subject to change.
Top 5 projected nomination leaders (films): “Emilia Pérez” (10); “A Complete Unknown,” “Gladiator II” and “Saturday Night” (9); “Dune: Part Two” (7); “Conclave” (6); “Anora” and “The Room Next Door” (5)
Top 3 projected nomination leaders (studios): Netflix (21), Searchlight Pictures (11), Paramount Pictures, and Warner Bros. (10)
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees are listed in alphabetical order)
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Best Picture
Image Credit: Courtesy of Ascot Elite Entertainment “Anora” (Neon)
Sean Baker, Alex Coco, Samantha Quan
“Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
Steve McQueen, Arnon Milchan, Yariv Milchan, Eric Fellner, Tim Bevan, Michael Schaefer
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Fred Berger, Alex Heineman, Bob Bookman, Peter Jaysen, Alan Gasmer, Jeff Rosen, Timothée Chalamet, James Mangold
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Alice Dawson, Robert Harris, Juliette Howell, Michael Jackman, Tessa Ross
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
Cale Boyter, Tanya Lapointe, Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) ***
Jacques Audiard, Pascal Caucheteux, Valérie Schermann, Anthony Vacarello
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
Lucy Fisher, David Franzoni, Michael Pruss, Ridley Scott, Douglas Wick
“The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
Todd Black, Denzel Washington
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Agustín Almodóvar, Esther García
“Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
Jason Blumenfeld, Peter Rice, Jason Reitman, GIl Kenan -
Director
Image Credit: Shanna Besson Jacques Audiard ***
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Sean Baker
“Anora” (Neon)
James Mangold
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Jason Reitman
“Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
Ridley Scott
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) -
Actor
Image Credit: A24 Timothée Chalamet
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Daniel Craig
“Queer” (A24)
Colman Domingo
“Sing Sing” (A24)
Ralph Fiennes ***
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Paul Mescal
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) -
Actress
Image Credit: Pablo Larraín Angelina Jolie ***
“Maria” (Netflix)
Karla Sofía Gascón
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Marianne Jean-Baptiste
“Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street)
Mikey Madison
“Anora” (Neon)
Saoirse Ronan
“The Outrun” (Sony Pictures Classics) -
Supporting Actor
Image Credit: Sony Pictures Kieran Culkin
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
Gabriel LaBelle
“Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
Edward Norton
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Stanley Tucci
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Denzel Washington ***
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) -
Supporting Actress
Image Credit: Searchlight Pictures Monica Barbaro
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Danielle Deadwyler
“The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
Isabella Rossellini
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Zoe Saldaña ***
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Tilda Swinton
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics) -
Original Screenplay
Image Credit: Courtesy of Sundance Institute “Anora” (Neon) ***
Sean Baker
“Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
Steve McQueen
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Jacques Audiard
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
Jesse Eisenberg
“Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
Gil Kenan, Jason Reitman -
Adapted Screenplay
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Jay Cocks, James Mangold
“Conclave” (Focus Features) ***
Peter Straughan
“The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
Virgil Williams, Malcolm Washington
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Pedro Almodóvar
“Sing Sing” (A24)
Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield -
Animated Feature
Image Credit: Courtesy of Annecy Animation Festival “Flow” (Janus Films/Sideshow)
Gints Zilbalodis, Matīss Kaža, Ron Dyens, Gregory Zalcman
“Inside Out 2” (Pixar)
Kelsey Mann, Mark Nielsen
“Memoir of a Snail” (IFC Films)
Adam Elliot, Liz Kearney
“Piece by Piece” (Focus Features)
Morgan Neville, Caitrin Rogers, Pharrell Williams
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) ***
Chris Sanders, Jeff Hermann -
Production Design
Image Credit: Warner Bros. “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
Adam Stockhausen, Anna Pinnock
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***
Patrice Vermette, Zsuzsanna Sipos
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
Arthur Max, Elli Griff
“Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)
Mark Friedberg, Karen O’Hara
“Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
Jess Gonchor, Claudia BonfeOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
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Cinematography
Image Credit: L. Kasimu Harris / Amazon MGM / Orion “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***
Greig Fraser
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
John Mathieson
“Maria” (Netflix)
Edward Lachman
“Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM/Orion)
Jomo Fray
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Eduard GrauOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
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Costume Design
Image Credit: ©Focus Features/Courtesy Everett Collection “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.)
Colleen Atwood
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Arianne Phillips
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
Jacqueline West
“Maria” (Netflix) ***
Massimo Cantini Parrini
“Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
Linda MuirOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
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Film Editing
Image Credit: Neon “Anora” (Neon)
Sean Baker
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Andrew Buckland
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) ***
Juliette Welfling
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
Sam Restivo, Claire Simpson
“Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
Nathan Orloff, Shane ReidOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
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Makeup and Hairstyling
Image Credit: Christine Tamalet “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Maria” (Netflix)
“Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
“The Substance” (Mubi)Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
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Sound
Image Credit: Apple TV+ “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) ***
“Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
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Visual Effects
Image Credit: Disney “Better Man” (Paramount Pictures)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) ***
“Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” (20th Century Studios)
“Mufasa: The Lion King” (Walt Disney Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
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Original Score
Image Credit: DreamWorks “Conclave” (Focus Features)
Volker Bertelmann
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Clément Ducol, Camille
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics) ***
Alberto Iglesias
“Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
Jon Batiste
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)
Kris BowersOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
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Original Song
Image Credit: Focus Features “El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Mi Camino” from “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) ***
“Piece by Piece” from “Piece by Piece” (Focus Features)
“The Journey” from “The Six Triple Eight” (Netflix)
“Kiss the Sky” from “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
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Documentary Feature
Image Credit: Courtesy of Sundance Institute “Dahomey” (Mubi)
dir. Mati Diop
“Daughters” (Netflix)
dir. Angela Patton, Natalie Rae
“Sugarcane” (National Geographic Documentary Films)
dir. Julian Brave NoiseCat, Emily Kassie
“Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story” (Warner Bros.)
dirs. Ian Bonhôte, Peter Ettedgui
“Will & Harper” (Netflix) ***
dir. Josh GreenbaumOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
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International Feature
Image Credit: Courtesy of Videofilmes, Venice Film Festival “All We Imagine as Light” from India (Janus Films/Sideshow)
dir. Payal Kapadia
“Emilia Pérez” from France (Netflix) ***
dir. Jacques Audiard
“I’m Still Here” from Brazil (Sony Pictures Classics)
dir. Walter Salles
“Kneecap” from Ireland (Sony Pictures Classics)
dir. Rich Peppiatt
“The Seed of a Sacred Fig” from Germany (Neon)
dir. Mohammad RasoulofOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
